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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.