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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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