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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Squad Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a far greater change with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that train approaching, coming around the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.