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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth UK leader to occupy the position in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”